A police officer and a local official on Gola Island, Ireland, carrying a ballot box on Friday, a day before the rest of the country was set to vote in a general election.
Photo: Liam Mcburney/Zuma PressA left-wing party whose primary objective is to reunify Ireland looked set to win more votes than its rivals in Saturday’s Irish general election, according to recent opinion polls, in what would be the best showing for the left in the country’s history.
The polls suggest Sinn Féin is on course to win 25% of the votes cast, compared with 24% for Fianna Fáil and 20% for Fine Gael, the two center-right parties that have alternated in governing Ireland since it gained independence from the U.K. in 1922. Even if it wins the largest number of votes, however, the party is unlikely to be part of the next government, because no other large party is willing to join it in a coalition.
One obstacle for Sinn Féin has been its beginnings as the political arm of the Irish Republican Army, a terrorist group that fought a three-decade battle to forcibly unify Ireland. When Ireland became independent, the U.K. retained sovereignty over roughly a third of its population in the northeast of the island, forming a separate unit known as Northern Ireland.
Following a peace deal in 1998, Sinn Féin focused on becoming a more conventional political party and expanding beyond its strongholds along the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, finding voters in poorer parts of Dublin and the countryside.
From left, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, Fine Gael leader and Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, and Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald taking part in a televised debate Tuesday in Dublin.
Photo: niall carson/pool/ShutterstockOpinion polls suggest that many of its new voters are younger people who have no direct memory of the violent, late-20th-century conflict known as the Troubles and who see Sinn Féin as an alternative to the right-of-center establishment. These voters grew up during the last two decades as Ireland wrestled with the most severe economic crisis in its history as an independent country, tarnishing the reputation of Fianna Fáil, long the most popular party.
Sinn Féin has also benefited from the transition to a new generation of leaders who aren’t directly associated with the party’s violent past. Longtime leader Gerry Adams was widely believed to have been a leading member of the IRA, a charge that he has always denied.
Mr. Adams stepped down from the party leadership in 2018, to be succeeded by Mary Lou McDonald. Unlike Mr. Adams, who spoke with a strong Northern Irish accent, Ms. McDonald is from Dublin, Ireland’s capital city, and entered politics after the peace deal.
“His face was a reminder of the violence and criminality of the past,” said Jen Maguire Donohoe, a 22-year-old considering a first-time vote for the party. “They’re working to move away from that image.”
A similar transition has taken place in Northern Ireland, where former IRA leader Martin McGuinness was succeeded as head of the Sinn Féin by Michelle O’Neill, who was just 21 when the peace agreement was signed. Northern Ireland isn’t voting on Saturday.
In past Irish elections, Sinn Féin has received fewer votes than opinion polls suggested, but that might not happen Saturday. According to Ms. Donohoe, interest in the election runs high among her age group.
“It’s the most political I’ve seen Instagram,” she said. “We grew up through so much, we were forced to be political.”
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
Should Ireland press for an early referendum on unification? Why or why not? Join the conversation below.
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled out entering a coalition with Sinn Féin, citing its violent past. But even without becoming a part of the new government, a strengthened Sinn Féin would likely foster a greater focus on preparing the path toward a united Ireland. That longtime aspiration of the party has appeared more attainable since the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, a path opposed by a majority of voters in Northern Ireland.
Unification is the party’s primary goal, and its call for a referendum on the issue within five years featured prominently in its manifesto for this election. But in recent years it has placed equal emphasis on its left-leaning economic and social policies, which have resonated with a growing number of voters.
A shortage of housing has been the defining issue of the campaign, and Sinn Féin’s proposal reflects its overall stance relative to the two right-of-center parties: a more direct role for the government in building new homes and less reliance on the market to solve the problem.
“The growth in support for Sinn Féin is rooted in their economic and social policies,” said Theresa Reidy, a political scientist at University College Cork. “There are perils in advocating nationalist goals. It’s Brexit that’s led to this border conversation, not a bottom-up surge in nationalism.”
Election posters on display on lampposts in Dublin on Friday, a day before the country goes to the polls.
Photo: Peter Morrison/Associated PressIf Sinn Féin were to top the poll, it would be the first left-of-center party to do so in Ireland’s history, which makes the country an oddity in Europe.
But even if the party secures a vote share that seemed out of reach when the poll was called three weeks ago, Saturday’s outcome isn’t likely to lead to a radical change of direction for the country, which has relied heavily on investment by U.S. technology giants to drive a recent surge in economic growth.
Sinn Féin hobbled itself by fielding too few candidates to win as many seats in parliament as its projected vote share would allow, a reflection of how low its expectations were as the short campaign got under way.
That miscalculation leaves the way open for Ireland to once again be governed by a right-of-center party. The most recent polls suggest that Fianna Fáil is set to supplant Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael party as the group with the largest number of seats in the legislature, known as Dáil Éireann.
However, no party is expected to win enough seats to govern by itself, and the process of forming a coalition may take many weeks.
The election is the first in Ireland since the British referendum to leave the EU in 2016. Having successfully navigated delicate negotiations over Ireland’s relations with the U.K. after its departure from the bloc, Mr. Varadkar had expected to win another term. But some voters appear poised to turn away from him out of concern with growing inequality in the country and deepening problems in housing and health care.
Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
2020-02-08 11:18:00Z
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMicGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndzai5jb20vYXJ0aWNsZXMvc2lubi1mZWluLXBvaXNlZC1mb3ItaGlzdG9yaWMtcmVzdWx0LWluLWlyaXNoLWVsZWN0aW9uYnV0LW5vdC10by1nb3Zlcm4tMTE1ODExNTc4MDDSAQA?oc=5
Read Next >>>>
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Sinn Féin Poised for Historic Result in Irish Election—but Not to Govern - The Wall Street Journal"
Post a Comment